FXUS64 KMRX 111121 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 621 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 337 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2025 Key Messages: 1. Snow flurries diminish this morning with subsidence aloft. 2. Clouds stick around today beneath an inversion around 5k ft. Discussion: Snow flurries diminish this morning with subsidence aloft. This will result in an inversion around 850mb with an ovc to bkn cloud layer beneath this layer. This will result in cloudy conditions remaining across the valley throughout the day. Temperatures remain much colder than normal with the cold surface airmass and snow cover across the region. Gradual clearing is expected tonight into Sunday morning with the potential of freezing fog, especially in areas that have snow cover. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Saturday) Issued at 337 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2025 Key Messages: 1. Cold temperatures are expected into the middle of the week with snow showers or flurries possible. 2. A warming trend is expected by the end of the week. Sunday through Tuesday At the start of the period, troughing will be noted to our northwest with high pressure centered over the area. This will continue the cold and dry pattern following the recent winter storm that impacted the area. The combination of subsidence and lingering snow cover will allow for notably cold temperatures to start the day on Sunday. Height rises and more persistent sunshine will be sufficient to allow most places to rise above freezing. Monday into Tuesday, the upper jet will strengthen to an impressive 180 kts or more above the area with a weak front moving in from the west. This will allow for another significant drop in temperatures towards Tuesday with many places likely staying at or below freezing. Also, the westerly to northwesterly flow and indications of moisture may allow for additional snow showers and flurries across the area. The bigger impact, however, will be continued re- freezing of snow from the recent winter storms. Wednesday through Friday Later in the week, additional troughing will dig into the area with very strong high pressure arriving from the west by Thursday. Lingering moisture may keep chances for snow showers or flurries on Wednesday. The strong subsidence and additional height falls will keep cold temperatures in the forecast on Thursday, especially in the morning hours driven by subsidence. By Friday, notable height rises are anticipated with temperatures rising closer to normal. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2025 MVFR conditions prevail this morning and continue for much of the day. Increasing cigs may result in some VFR conditions by the afternoon, especially at CHA. NW winds will be brisk at times today, mainly at TRI. Fog is expected area- wide tonight, especially for those locations with snow cover on the ground. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 36 19 40 26 / 10 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 34 17 39 24 / 20 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 34 17 38 24 / 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 31 15 37 21 / 30 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for Cherokee- Clay. TN...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ this morning for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell- Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen- Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon- Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount- Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-Union-Washington TN-West Polk. VA...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for Lee-Russell- Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise. && $$ SHORT TERM...JB LONG TERM....BW AVIATION...JB